As various emerging economies are seeking to leapfrog coal and move to clean energy through Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), Viet Nam has passed an important first milestone by setting its Resource Mobilization Plan (RMP). A sign of strategic collaborations and investment opportunities to come, this plan has already prompted high-level discussion between the Asian Development Bank and Vietnam Electricity on a battery energy storage system pilot project.

The RMP lays out a comprehensive list of action plans to guide the use of the initial USD 15.5 billion in funds pledged for Viet Nam’s JETP by the International Partners Group (IPG). The plan, launched during COP28 in December 2023, will be used to mobilize the JETP finance to help deliver on Viet Nam’s goals to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050. It identifies priority investment areas, as well as building blocks for a framework to analyze and monitor the just aspects of energy transition. As a living document, the RPM will be updated regularly to reflects national priorities vis-à-vis evolving climate commitments under Viet Nam’s JETP.

CPI has outlined key takeaways from Viet Nam’s JETP and the RMP and identified some immediate actions to help them succeed. Our analysis and recommendations below also draw from our experience in supporting Indonesia’s JETP Secretariat in developing and implementing the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP).

JETP Scope and Priorities

Key references for the JETP RMP include Viet Nam’s Nationally Determined Contribution, National Climate Change Strategy, Power Development Plan (PDP 8), the JETP scheme, and proposals from domestic and international partners. Subject to the full realization of JETP commitments by international partners, Viet Nam has amplified its climate ambition, as outlined in its JETP Political Declaration:

• Reaching peak greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 (moving this deadline forward from 2035, as previously pledged).
• Reaching peak annual power sector emissions of 170 MtCO₂e by 2030 (rather than 204-254 MtCO₂e by 2030, as pledged in the PDP 8).
• Limiting peak coal-fired generation capacity to 30.2 gigawatts (from a planned capacity peak of 37GW).
• Accelerating the growth of renewable energy so that it accounts for at least 47% of the country’s electricity generation by 2030 (compared to the PDP 8 commitment of 31-39% by 2030).

While the above targets focus on power, the JETP also covers the broader energy sector as follows:

1. Improving the regulatory framework for the energy transition.
2. The transition of coal power generation.
3. Developing the renewable energy industry.
4. Power transmission and energy storage.
5. Energy efficiency.
6. Energy transition in the transport sector.
7. Innovation, development, and technology transfer.
8. Ensuring a just transition.

Given their importance to Viet Nam’s JETP targets and climate goals, power transmission, energy storage, and offshore wind power are being prioritized for investment, with the Viet Nam government planning to launch the following key energy transition programs this year:

• Power transmission: Supporting the development of frameworks to enable private investment in power grid development and cross-border transmission, and investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure to integrate renewable energy into the system.
• Energy storage: Supporting technical capacity building, policy frameworks, as well as needs assessment and feasibility study for battery energy storage systems, investment in related pilot(s), and pumped storage projects.
• Offshore wind: Capacity building for relevant stakeholders on planning and technical assessment related to offshore wind (i.e., marine spatial planning, environmental and wind speed measurement), and investment to install up to 6 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.

JETP Funds Coverage and Composition

What’s needed: Information on the total investment required to reach Viet Nam’s JETP targets is not available, though PDP 8 estimates investment needs of USD 120 billion for power generation and USD 15 billion for energy transmission infrastructure improvement and expansion by 2030. While this paints a partial picture of what is needed, the PDP 8 is not directly aligned with the JETP as it includes some incompatible projects (e.g., new fossil fuel power plants) and does not include costs for just transition and research activities.

What’s committed: The current USD 15.5 billion funding pot for Viet Nam’s JETP comprises USD 8 billion in public finance (from IPG financial institutions and others) and USD 7.5 billion in private finance from the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ). With the ambitious scope of Viet Nam’s JETP likely to require many times this amount, these initial funds must be strategically deployed to mobilize further investment from other sources. The private funds from GFANZ will be provided at market rates and aligned with the mobilization of the catalytic public sector finance by the IPG members and improved regulatory frameworks. Meanwhile, the public funds feature different mechanisms and levels of concessionality, as shown in Figure 1.

_{Figure 1. Breakdown of Viet Nam’s JETP public funds}

Utilizing the initial IPG funds to mobilize more investment may come with conditionalities. Some of the JETP funds are earmarked for certain uses and have limited flexibility in their allocation. For example, USD 240 million of the grant funding is already earmarked, leaving USD 82 million to be used flexibly. Of the concessional loans, around EUR 600 million (~USD 650 million) is for the country’s Bac Ai hydropower pump storage project, one of the listed JETP priority projects. The RMP’s Annex I lists 37 projects that have been identified in other official masterplans and programs, and Annex I.2 lists 181 projects that have been proposed by partners but are not yet listed in other official plans. Prioritizing listed projects based on their potential to accelerate the energy transition will help to effectively allocate available JETP financing.

Additionality of JETP Just Transition Aspects

The IPG, which is co-led by the UK, the EU, and GFANZ, has committed around USD 22 million in grant-based technical assistance to create the right social and economic conditions to enable a just transition. Support will include technical and vocational training as well as the Germany-funded Innovation Regions for a Just Energy Transition program, which will focus on social dialogue and stakeholder engagement, impact studies, transformational measures, and policy change. To reinforce the just transition elements of the JETP, the RMP proposes to incorporate processes for just impact assessments at the national, subnational, and project levels. Project-level just impact assessments will be additional to existing general, environmental, and social aspects, as shown in Table 1.

Close communication will be needed among government agencies, financiers, project owners, unions, and affected communities to allocate resources and responsibilities related to the “just” aspects of the transition, while maintaining the technical and financial feasibility and timeliness of projects. Ideally, more grants should be allocated to support just transition activities, with consideration for how the proposed just aspects, along with the technical and financial feasibility apply, to both national and subnational projects and programs.

JETP Governance and Implementation

The development of the RMP was led by Viet Nam’s JETP Implementation Secretariat, headed by the Minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). This Secretariat will assume the key role of implementing and, when needed, updating this plan over the next five years. It will also coordinate with external stakeholders including the IPG and GFANZ. To support JETP implementation, four Working Groups (WGs) have been established:

• The General (Synthesis) WG, led by MONRE, will summarize activities and reports, review implementation progress, and facilitate engagements between key stakeholders.
• The Institutional, Policy, and Investment WG, led by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, will create enabling environments to facilitate investment and mainstream the just energy transition in government planning.
• The Technology and Energy WG, led by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, will review and propose policy improvements for the just energy transition, identifying needs, and coordinating technology transfer activities under JETP implementation.
• The Finance WG, led by the Ministry of Finance, will coordinate with stakeholders on mobilizing financial support.

To monitor progress on resource mobilization and implementation, annual monitoring and evaluation will be conducted, in addition to biennial reviews of progress toward JETP targets, including on emissions, renewable energy, and coal reduction. The Technology and Energy WG is set to begin technical analysis in early 2024, which will guide investment and policy actions to achieve the JETP targets, and will provide a reference for the annual and biennial reviews.

Key Actions to Consider

The RMP sets out comprehensive plans and requirements to achieve Viet Nam’s ambitious targets, but implementation pathways must now be charted. By weighting investments towards renewables, battery storage, and green hydrogen, the RMP is aligned with the PDP 8 and the country’s vision of achieving net zero in the power sector by 2050. However, it is unclear how the JETP’s more ambitious peak annual power sector emissions and electricity generation targets will be achieved, as these are not covered by the PDP 8.

More funds may be needed to transition coal power plants to cleaner energy. In terms of investment focus, Viet Nam’s RMP identifies three plants to incorporate alternative energy sources (Cao Ngan, Pha Lai 1, and Ninh Binh). In comparison, Indonesia JETP’s CIPP emphasized the potential early retirement of two coal-fired plants (Cirebon and Pelabuhan Ratu). The Viet Nam and Indonesia plans both contain the idea of “coal flexibility” to phase down coal plants by reducing their capacity factor and providing ancillary services. However, neither plan presents a clear pathway to a complete phase-out by 2050, either through decommissioning or by switching from coal to clean fuel. While Indonesia’s CIPP earmarked around USD 1.67 billion for projects that include early coal retirement, Viet Nam’s RMP currently has only earmarked USD 10.74 million as eligible for coal power transition. This allocation should be further determined and sourced from the around USD 3 billion in IPG funds that are eligible for all categories.

Financing structures for RMP projects should be designed to optimize the use of concessional and catalytic finance. In terms of financing, PDP 8 estimates that about USD 134.7 billion in investment is needed for Viet Nam’s power generation and infrastructure (encompassing both climate and non-climate related projects) by 2030, which is almost nine times higher than the country’s JETP commitment. A similar funding gap is present in Indonesia’s JETP, whose USD 20 billion commitment is estimated to cover only one-fifth of its investment needs by 2030, highlighting the need to use the JETP funds to attract more finance.

From the policy perspective, ambitious growth in solar and wind capacity along with energy storage will require certain regulatory considerations. For instance, improvements to regulations related to rooftop solar behind-the-meter configuration and battery storage are still in draft form and may not be sufficient to support the PDP 8 and RMP.

While Indonesia’s and Viet Nam’s JETP plans include just transition frameworks that expand upon the project-level standards tailored to specific social and environmental needs in each country, these initiatives are still at the very early stage. Crucial aspects such as deciding on who will pay, who will benefit, legal implications, public consultations, and technical, on-the-ground matters still need to be determined.

Based on the above considerations, the following action points are needed for Viet Nam’s JETP to succeed:

1. The Technology and Energy WG should lead in conducting technical analysis to support the prioritization and selection of proposed projects to be eligible for JETP funding, as well as policy actions to be pursued by the Viet Nam government.
2. The Finance WG should lead in designing appropriate support mechanisms to attract private investment to projects based on this technical analysis, balancing between emissions reduction, system stability, and budget availability.
3. The Institutional, Policy, and Investment WG should lead in fostering close communication between key stakeholders (national and subnational government agencies, project owners, financiers, and communities) to create a workable implementation plan for just transition initiatives. One priority project could be used as a testbed to pilot the implementation of the just criteria.
4. The Secretariat, WGs, and the Secretariat Support Agency (SSA) responsible for assigning the experts and support staff for JETP Implementation should set up cohesive working arrangements among themselves to ensure the alignment of different workstreams. For example, the Finance WG’s prioritization of financial support should be informed by the technical analysis of the Technology and Energy WG, and vice-versa, the technical analysis needs to design a pathway in consideration of the available policy and financial instruments.
5. The JETP Implementation Secretariat and General (Synthesis) WG should facilitate close communication among JETP countries, including from outside Southeast Asia, to share lessons learned and accelerate transition efforts in the next phase of JETP implementation.

The RMP is an important first step towards implementing Viet Nam’s JETP and designing robust net-zero pathways. Taking the above actions will help create an enabling environment to reduce fossil fuel reliance and scale up renewable energy investment for a truly sustainable and just energy transition.